Apr 29 – May 2 · Churchill Downs
Spring Meet 2026
In-the-money probabilities for every runner over four days, including the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday.
Cards by day
Top value plays across the meet
Horses where our predicted ITM probability exceeds the morning-line implied probability by 5 points or more.
| Horse | Race | ML | Our ITM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTOBELLI | 04-29 R2 | 20-1 | 52.8% | +40.6% |
| MI BAGO | 04-30 R9 | 15-1 | 49.7% | +33.8% |
| SHE'Z THE LAW | 04-30 R2 | 15-1 | 49.4% | +33.5% |
| CHARBONNAY | 04-29 R2 | 20-1 | 43.9% | +31.7% |
| COTILLARD | 04-30 R2 | 20-1 | 43.6% | +31.4% |
| JOHNY'S RENDEZVOUS | 04-29 R9 | 20-1 | 42.5% | +30.3% |
| FRONT RUNNIN | 05-01 R8 | 50-1 | 35.2% | +30.2% |
| AUTUMN EVENING | 05-02 R4 | 20-1 | 42.0% | +29.8% |
| BUTTERFLY JASMINE | 05-01 R1 | 15-1 | 45.6% | +29.6% |
| AMERICAN POPE | 04-29 R6 | 30-1 | 37.6% | +29.4% |