John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sat, May 16

Race 10

DinnrPty-G3

Post: 4:11 · 1.13m · Turf · $250K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Soft pace

Only one early type; pace likely slow, helps anyone close to the leader.

1 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser 3 S — closer

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 84% · Top 4 cover 2.53 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
3EPCRUISE THE NILE1.8-11.2-191.929%75%-16%
4SFORT WASHINGTON3.5-13.7-192.722%65%+9%
7SHARROW12-115-191.020%62%+42%
1PWHAT SAY THEE15-120-187.715%51%+35%
5SA BOURBON FOR TOBY12-118-187.314%47%+27%
2SCREPTHUNDERING15-1
6SCREPDRESDEN ROW1.4-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.