2026-04-29 – 2026-05-31 · Louisville, KY
Churchill Downs
2026-spring
Transparency · TIGHT-tier shape only
How the model's most-likely-to-cash structure cashed at Churchill Downs
For every TIGHT-shape race, we settled the model's most-likely-to-cash trifecta structure at $1 per combo against the official chart. This is pari-mutuel transparency — not a recommendation to play it. Walk-forward backtests show the takeout floor is too steep to clear at this data scale; the model is useful as a tipsheet, not as automated betting.
No TIGHT-shape races have settled yet for this meet.
Cards by day
Wed, Apr 29
10 races
108 runners
Thu, Apr 30
12 races
500 runners
Fri, May 1
13 races
150 runners
Sat, May 2
14 races
169 runners
Top winner: $216.24 on a $2 wager · Race 13
Sun, May 10
10 races
108 runners
Top winner: $614.24 on a $2 wager · Race 5
Fri, May 15
9 races
70 runners
Sat, May 16
10 races
99 runners
Sun, May 17
9 races
80 runners
Fri, May 22
9 races
87 runners
Sat, May 23
11 races
101 runners
Sun, May 24
10 races
104 runners
Mon, May 25
9 races
93 runners
Fri, May 29
9 races
94 runners
Sun, May 31
10 races
91 runners
Top value plays at CD
↳ Click a horse for details
| Horse | Race | Post | Tri Hit % | ML | Our ITM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHATEVER → | 05-17 R1 | 12:45 | PASS | 15-1 | 78.4% | +62.4% |
| HUTCHINSON → | 05-17 R1 | 12:45 | PASS | 6.0-1 | 81.5% | +45.1% |
| AL AMJAAD → | 05-17 R1 | 12:45 | PASS | 4.0-1 | 93.4% | +42.4% |
| FREEDOM'S WAY → | 05-16 R8 | 9:39 | 9.1% | 30-1 | 47.8% | +39.5% |
| ASHKENAZI → | 05-22 R1 | 12:45 | PASS | 15-1 | 54.4% | +38.5% |
| R DISASTER → | 05-02 R4 | 12:38 | PASS | 6.0-1 | 69.7% | +37.8% |
| THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS → | 05-22 R8 | 4:22 | PASS | 8.0-1 | 63.1% | +34.7% |
| SPEED SKATER → | 05-23 R3 | 1:44 | 9.9% | 10-1 | 57.2% | +34.1% |
| CAMPING SIETE → | 05-17 R3 | 1:43 | 7.2% | 20-1 | 43.8% | +33.2% |
| YOU AIN'T POPPN → | 05-31 R5 | 2:46 | PASS | 6.0-1 | 67.9% | +31.5% |