Sun, May 17
Race 1
Md 20000
Post: 12:45 · 1.13m · Dirt · $48K purse · 4 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
4 runnersNo clear speed
No pure E or EP runners — pace will be made by whoever wants it, hard to project.
2 of 4 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAL AMJAAD | 4.0-1 | 3.8-1 | 71.9 | 44% | 93% | ▲+42% |
| 4 | HUTCHINSON | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 69.0 | 24% | 82% | ▲+45% |
| 3 | PWHATEVER | 15-1 | 18-1 | 64.3 | 22% | 78% | ▲+62% |
| 7 | MUSIC THEORY | 15-1 | 24-1 | 56.4 | 10% | 47% | ▲+31% |
| 2 | SCRPAY HEED | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCRPRAYER | 1.2-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRPCONSEQUENTIAL | 3.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.