2026-06-06 – 2026-06-06 · Saratoga Springs, NY
Saratoga
2026-belmont
Transparency · TIGHT-tier shape only
How the model's most-likely-to-cash structure cashed at Saratoga
For every TIGHT-shape race, we settled the model's most-likely-to-cash trifecta structure at $1 per combo against the official chart. This is pari-mutuel transparency — not a recommendation to play it. Walk-forward backtests show the takeout floor is too steep to clear at this data scale; the model is useful as a tipsheet, not as automated betting.
No TIGHT-shape races have settled yet for this meet.
Cards by day
Top value plays at SAR
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| Horse | Race | Post | Tri Hit % | ML | Our ITM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AND ONE MORE TIME → | 06-06 R7 | 2:47 | 18.2% | 8.0-1 | 61.7% | +33.4% |
| EJTIMAA → | 06-06 R3 | 12:15 | 19.7% | 12-1 | 52.6% | +33.0% |
| SON OF A BIRCH → | 06-06 R3 | 12:15 | 19.7% | 10-1 | 53.7% | +30.5% |
| ETAWA → | 06-06 R5 | 1:31 | PASS | 8.0-1 | 55.6% | +27.3% |
| DEEP SATIN → | 06-06 R7 | 2:47 | 18.2% | 12-1 | 46.3% | +26.7% |
| FUSION → | 06-06 R1 | 11:00 | 19.1% | 10-1 | 49.9% | +26.7% |
| TIZ DASHING → | 06-06 R12 | 6:11 | PASS | 30-1 | 33.9% | +22.3% |
| TWENTY SIX BLACK → | 06-06 R9 | 4:13 | PASS | 12-1 | 41.7% | +22.1% |
| HELEN'S REVENGE → | 06-06 R4 | 12:53 | PASS | 8.0-1 | 49.4% | +21.0% |
| CIAO CHUCK → | 06-06 R3 | 12:15 | 19.7% | 20-1 | 32.9% | +20.7% |