John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 5

ASHKENAZI

F '23 · HOOTENANNY × SHIVOO

Trainer: HILES RICK · Jockey: BEJARANO R

Today's prediction

71.9

Speed fig

54.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.41
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.34
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.31
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.31
  • Distance Change From Last +0.25

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.47
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.15
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.78
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.71
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.46

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 KEE 6f Dirt 6 15.0 63 85 Ins;2-3p5/16;faded btw
2026-03-11 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 16.8 58 77 Ins;caught 1/4;faded
2026-01-14 TP 6f Dirt 7 17.0 48 77 Dueled 2w;wknd btw3/16
2025-11-26 CD 5.5f Dirt 6 7.5 65 80 Chs 2-4p;tired;left ld
2025-11-02 CD 5.5f Dirt 1 2.8 74 76 Prompt 2wd;drove clear
2025-10-10 KEE 6f Dirt 2 2.3 72 70 2w;clr;left ld;gave in
2025-08-26 PID 5.5f Dirt 2 9.8 51 72 Press;no match
2025-07-29 IND 6f Dirt 3 5.8 60 Clear;couldn't last
2025-05-25 CD 4.5f Dirt 1 6.5 80 75 Brk in bmp;ins;cruised
2025-04-10 KEE 4.5f Dirt 4 6.3 63 84 Led 2wd;faded btwn 1/8