Sat, May 2

Race 4

DctyDst-G1

Post: 12:38 · 7f · Dirt · $1.00M purse · 5 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 5 of 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Speed duel

5 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.

1 E — pure early 4 EP — early/presser

Projected speed

#6 R DISASTER (E, QSP 8)
#1 USHA (EP, QSP 4)
#5 SPLENDORA (EP, QSP 3)
#4 WAYS AND MEANS (EP, QSP 3)
#3 AUTUMN EVENING (EP, QSP 2)

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 91% · Top 4 cover 2.73 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP	Horse	ML	Pred Close	Live	Pred Fig	Win	ITM% ↓	Edge
5	EPSPLENDORA	2.0-1	1.6-1	↓1.0-1	99.3	31%	79%	▼-21%
6	ER DISASTER	6.0-1	6.5-1	·7.0-1	96.4	24%	70%	▲+38%
1	EPUSHA	4.5-1	4.3-1	·5.0-1	93.5	20%	64%	▲+21%
4	EPWAYS AND MEANS	1.6-1	1.4-1	·1.8-1	97.7	19%	61%	▼-30%
3	EPAUTUMN EVENING	20-1	27-1	↓9.0-1	83.0	7%	27%	·+2%
2	SCREPHAULIN ICE	4.0-1	—	—	—	—	—	—

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.