John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 7

Clm 17500n2x

Post: 4:04 · 6.5f · Dirt · $33K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Contested pace

4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

2 E — pure early 2 EP — early/presser 1 S — closer

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 94% · Top 4 cover 2.82 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
5EPFINAL PAYMENT1.0-10.7-179.934%84%-16%
2EWAR TO REMEMBER6.0-16.5-175.024%73%+37%
1EPBIG TIMER2.0-11.8-175.521%69%-16%
4EI'M TUFF ENOUGH4.5-15.5-171.716%56%+9%
6SAMERICAN TACT15-124-158.94%18%·+3%
3SCRECRAZY RED20-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

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