John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 7

Wstchstr-G3

Post: 4:15 · 1m · Dirt · $175K purse · 4 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

4 runners

Contested pace

3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

3 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 100% · Top 4 cover 3.00 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
2EPBISHOPS BAY1.4-10.8-1100.938%89%-11%
4EPQUINT'S BREW4.0-13.5-198.826%80%+29%
3EPANTIQUARIAN2.0-12.0-197.918%67%-18%
1PPENTATHLON8.0-17.0-192.817%64%+35%
5SCRERATED BY MERIT3.5-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.