2026-05-16 – 2026-05-16 · Laurel, MD
Laurel Park
2026-preakness
Transparency · TIGHT-tier shape only
How the model's most-likely-to-cash structure cashed at Laurel Park
For every TIGHT-shape race, we settled the model's most-likely-to-cash trifecta structure at $1 per combo against the official chart. This is pari-mutuel transparency — not a recommendation to play it. Walk-forward backtests show the takeout floor is too steep to clear at this data scale; the model is useful as a tipsheet, not as automated betting.
No TIGHT-shape races have settled yet for this meet.
Cards by day
Top value plays at LRL
↳ Click a horse for details
| Horse | Race | Post | Tri Hit % | ML | Our ITM | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HARROW → | 05-16 R10 | 4:11 | PASS | 12-1 | 62.0% | +42.3% |
| WHAT SAY THEE → | 05-16 R10 | 4:11 | PASS | 15-1 | 51.0% | +35.1% |
| STRIKER HAS DIAL → | 05-16 R4 | 12:16 | PASS | 8.0-1 | 59.4% | +31.1% |
| FALCON JET → | 05-16 R6 | 1:28 | 12.0% | 10-1 | 53.6% | +30.4% |
| A BOURBON FOR TOBY → | 05-16 R10 | 4:11 | PASS | 12-1 | 47.0% | +27.4% |
| HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION → | 05-16 R8 | 2:48 | 40.5% | 3.5-1 | 68.3% | +25.8% |
| ITSAMONSTAMASH → | 05-16 R1 | 10:30 | PASS | 30-1 | 32.8% | +24.6% |
| PONT AVEN → | 05-16 R6 | 1:28 | 12.0% | 30-1 | 32.6% | +24.3% |
| BAND CAMP → | 05-16 R2 | 11:05 | PASS | 12-1 | 43.1% | +23.5% |
| HOLLYWOOD IMPORT → | 05-16 R7 | 2:07 | 10.8% | 15-1 | 30.3% | +23.0% |