Fri, May 22
Race 1
Clm 30000b
Post: 12:45 · 6f · Dirt · $63K purse · 5 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
5 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 VICKI ROSE (EP, QSP 7)
- #5 ASHKENAZI (E, QSP 7)
- #2 SPOTAWAY (E, QSP 7)
- #6 CAROL'S MELODY (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SSWEET BEBSI | 2.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 78.0 | 25% | 69% | ·-4% |
| 1 | EPVICKI ROSE | 3.5-1 | 4.4-1 | 76.1 | 25% | 69% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | EPCAROL'S MELODY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 72.7 | 17% | 56% | ▲+27% |
| 5 | EASHKENAZI | 15-1 | 17-1 | 71.9 | 17% | 54% | ▲+38% |
| 2 | ESPOTAWAY | 5.0-1 | 8.5-1 | 73.3 | 16% | 52% | ▲+10% |
| 3 | SCREPUP THE CREEK | 1.4-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.