Sat, May 16
Race 8
Lsvill-G3
Post: 9:39 · 1.50m · Turf · $250K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 ECHO LANE (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 FREEDOM'S WAY (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 3, 2, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
9.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$9.71
mean $14.46
Expected ROI
-78.2%
net $-4.69
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 2, 5] — hits 9.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $10 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
2, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
6, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.8% | $9.71 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.3% | $13.50 | -71% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 15.7% | $9.71 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 16.5% | $6.77 | -84% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 29.4% | $13.66 | -57% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ASBURNHAM SQUARE | 0.4-1 | 0.6-1 | 95.2 | 23% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 2 | BEPECHO LANE | 4.0-1 | 4.4-1 | 91.7 | 19% | 55% | ·+4% |
| 5 | BPDANCIN IN DA'NILE | 12-1 | 13-1 | 91.4 | 17% | 51% | ▲+31% |
| 4 | BEPFREEDOM'S WAY | 30-1 | 27-1 | 89.0 | 15% | 48% | ▲+40% |
| 1 | CSANEGADA | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 89.8 | 15% | 46% | ▲+10% |
| 6 | CSVOTE NO | 20-1 | 32-1 | 86.6 | 11% | 36% | ▲+24% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.