Sat, May 23
Race 5
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 2:47 · 1m · Turf · $127K purse · 16 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
16 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #15 AUNT MO (E, QSP 8)
- #6 MORE GALILADY (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 SALTY SENORITA (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 COTILLARD (EP, QSP 6)
- #13 BREAKING HEARTS (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 4, 8, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$103.70
mean $113.70
Expected ROI
-75.0%
net $-4.50
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 8, 10] — hits 1.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $104 (mean $114; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 8
B Contenders
10, 12, 3
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.1% | $90.64 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.2% | $90.64 | -81% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.9% | $98.01 | -83% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.0% | $112.86 | -81% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 4.2% | $101.44 | -77% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ASICONA | 2.5-1 | 1.7-1 | 84.8 | 12% | 34% | ▼-39% |
| 8 | APAMBERGLEN | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 84.1 | 11% | 32% | ▼-15% |
| 10 | BPLOW KEY IN LOVE | 12-1 | 8.9-1 | 84.9 | 11% | 32% | ▲+12% |
| 12 | BSLOVE AND POETRY | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 82.6 | 9% | 27% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | BPLA CANTERA | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 84.7 | 9% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 1 | EPSALTY SENORITA | 10-1 | 11-1 | 82.8 | 7% | 21% | ·-2% |
| 5 | PMISS PHARAOH | 6.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 80.9 | 7% | 21% | ▼-16% |
| 16 | SMODERN SOUND | 8.0-1 | 9.5-1 | 76.4 | 6% | 18% | ▼-11% |
| 2 | SCANDY ROCKETTE | 15-1 | 21-1 | 80.3 | 5% | 16% | ·-0% |
| 13 | EPBREAKING HEARTS | 15-1 | 24-1 | 78.2 | 5% | 15% | ·-1% |
| 11 | PWASSAIL | 20-1 | 36-1 | 77.2 | 4% | 13% | ·+0% |
| 14 | PCONSIDER ME FIRST | 15-1 | 24-1 | 74.7 | 4% | 11% | ·-4% |
| 9 | SBLUSHING JUSTICE | 15-1 | 19-1 | 70.2 | 3% | 10% | ▼-6% |
| 15 | EAUNT MO | 30-1 | 48-1 | 72.6 | 3% | 10% | ·+2% |
| 7 | EPCOTILLARD | 30-1 | 67-1 | 70.1 | 3% | 9% | ·+1% |
| 6 | EPMORE GALILADY | 20-1 | 43-1 | 63.2 | 2% | 6% | ▼-6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.