Sat, May 23
Race 4
Clm 50000n2l
Post: 2:15 · 1.06m · Dirt · $76K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 PACIFIC (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 BOURBON FLIGHT (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 PAMPERED PRINCE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 START MO UP (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 2, 4, 6, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$22.94
mean $29.99
Expected ROI
-75.2%
net $-4.51
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [2, 4, 6, 5] — hits 5.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $23 (mean $30; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
4, 6, 5
C Value-edge longshots
7, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.9% | $22.15 | -82% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 8.5% | $23.87 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.5% | $22.94 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.6% | $22.94 | -78% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.8% | $23.87 | -71% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | APMAXIMUM PROMISE | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | 83.2 | 19% | 54% | ▼-19% |
| 4 | BEPBOURBON FLIGHT | 2.0-1 | 1.8-1 | 78.7 | 16% | 47% | ▼-38% |
| 6 | BEPPACIFIC | 4.5-1 | 5.5-1 | 78.9 | 15% | 45% | ·-1% |
| 5 | BPGLOBAL QUOTE | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 80.3 | 15% | 45% | ▲+8% |
| 1 | EPAMPERED PRINCE | 3.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 78.9 | 14% | 42% | ▼-15% |
| 7 | CPWEAPONIZED | 15-1 | 15-1 | 74.5 | 12% | 38% | ▲+22% |
| 3 | CESTART MO UP | 20-1 | 38-1 | 75.4 | 9% | 30% | ▲+18% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.