John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 5

MISS PHARAOH

F '22 · AMERICAN PHAROAH × MISS CHALLENGE

Trainer: SIMS MATTHEW P · Jockey: GUTIERREZ MARIO

Today's prediction

80.9

Speed fig

20.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.80
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.65
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.43
  • Last Finish Pos +0.32
  • Last Speed Fig +0.25

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.76
  • Today Field Size -0.66
  • Today Weight -0.40
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.36
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.20

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-23 KEE 1.13m Turf 1 0.5 83 81 Ins;rail bid;clrd;held
2025-12-20 TP 1.06m Dirt 3 1.5 78 80 Ins;3p2nd;needed more
2025-11-21 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 12.0 77 81 2p;bid 3pbtw;no match
2025-10-09 KEE 1.13m Turf 3 2.5 82 81 2-3wbtw;chsd willingly
2025-06-29 CD 1.13m Turf 4 5.3 77 81 Ins;4-5p btw1/4;evenly
2025-06-07 CD 1.13m Turf 2 3.8 78 81 2p;shffld3/8;5p1/4;lug
2025-04-17 KEE 1.06m Turf 4 3.8 77 82 Ins;4p btw upr;evened
2025-02-27 TP 1m Dirt 3 4.5 77 78 Slow stride/on for 3rd
2025-01-30 TP 1m Dirt 3 5.8 69 78 Bid str; hung late
2024-12-26 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 9.3 74 81 Outs run; no response