Sat, May 23
Race 6
Md Sp Wt
Post: 3:19 · 1m · Dirt · $120K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 NATIONAL CHARTER (E, QSP 6)
- #4 OUR FOREFATHERS (E, QSP 6)
2 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 3, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.52
mean $13.65
Expected ROI
-77.0%
net $-4.62
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 3, 4] — hits 10.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
3, 4, 7
C Value-edge longshots
2, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 9.1% | $16.02 | -78% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 15.3% | $17.82 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 16.2% | $17.82 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.5% | $16.02 | -74% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 22.3% | $19.04 | -65% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APMARKET RUNNER | 1.4-1 | 0.9-1 | 88.7 | 26% | 67% | ▼-33% |
| 3 | BENATIONAL CHARTER | 4.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 83.6 | 18% | 54% | ·+3% |
| 4 | BEOUR FOREFATHERS | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 83.5 | 17% | 50% | ▼-13% |
| 7 | BCIERTO | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 78.0 | 13% | 42% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | CPSUSAN'S BOY | 10-1 | 12-1 | 80.2 | 12% | 40% | ▲+17% |
| 2 | CSNOMOLIMBO | 20-1 | 32-1 | 76.3 | 9% | 30% | ▲+18% |
| 5 | MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 69.6 | 5% | 17% | ▼-11% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.