Thu, Apr 30
Race 4
Md 50000
Post: 2:18 · 1.06m · Turf · $67K purse · 64 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
64 runnersHot pace
16 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #14 KEY ACTRESS (E, QSP 6)
- #14 KEY ACTRESS (E, QSP 6)
- #14 KEY ACTRESS (E, QSP 6)
- #14 KEY ACTRESS (E, QSP 6)
- #4 LEXICO (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 LEXICO (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 LEXICO (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 LEXICO (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 BREAKING HEARTS (E, QSP 4)
- #12 BREAKING HEARTS (E, QSP 4)
- #12 BREAKING HEARTS (E, QSP 4)
- #12 BREAKING HEARTS (E, QSP 4)
- #5 MODERN ESCAPE (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 MODERN ESCAPE (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 MODERN ESCAPE (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 MODERN ESCAPE (EP, QSP 3)
24 of 64 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [8] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 8
B Contenders
8, 8, 11
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | BTHEORETICAL | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 75.9 | 3% | 10% | ▼-37% |
| 8 | BTHEORETICAL | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | 75.7 | 3% | 10% | ▼-37% |
| 8 | BTHEORETICAL | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | 75.7 | 3% | 10% | ▼-37% |
| 8 | BTHEORETICAL | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | 75.7 | 3% | 10% | ▼-37% |
| 11 | BSPLOT | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 74.4 | 3% | 8% | ▼-49% |
| 11 | BSPLOT | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 74.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-49% |
| 11 | BSPLOT | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 74.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-49% |
| 11 | BSPLOT | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 74.1 | 3% | 8% | ▼-49% |
| 12 | EBREAKING HEARTS | 5.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 72.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-35% |
| 12 | EBREAKING HEARTS | 5.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 72.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-35% |
| 12 | EBREAKING HEARTS | 5.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 72.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-35% |
| 12 | EBREAKING HEARTS | 5.0-1 | 5.7-1 | 72.7 | 2% | 7% | ▼-35% |
| 4 | EPLEXICO | 6.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 71.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | EPLEXICO | 6.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 71.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | EPLEXICO | 6.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 71.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 4 | EPLEXICO | 6.0-1 | 9.0-1 | 71.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 13 | ENGLISH HARBOUR | 4.5-1 | 4.8-1 | 67.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-41% |
| 3 | DEVICES | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 69.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 3 | DEVICES | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 69.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 3 | DEVICES | 8.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 69.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 13 | ENGLISH HARBOUR | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 67.2 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 13 | ENGLISH HARBOUR | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 67.2 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 13 | ENGLISH HARBOUR | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 67.2 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 3 | DEVICES | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 68.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-23% |
| 15 | WELLA | 12-1 | 19-1 | 70.9 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 15 | WELLA | 12-1 | 19-1 | 70.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 15 | WELLA | 12-1 | 19-1 | 70.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 15 | WELLA | 12-1 | 19-1 | 70.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 10 | PLADY FAYE | 10-1 | 15-1 | 68.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-19% |
| 10 | PLADY FAYE | 10-1 | 15-1 | 68.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-19% |
| 10 | PLADY FAYE | 10-1 | 15-1 | 68.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-19% |
| 10 | PLADY FAYE | 10-1 | 15-1 | 68.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-19% |
| 14 | EKEY ACTRESS | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 65.1 | 1% | 4% | ▼-24% |
| 14 | EKEY ACTRESS | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 65.1 | 1% | 4% | ▼-24% |
| 14 | EKEY ACTRESS | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 65.1 | 1% | 4% | ▼-24% |
| 1 | PHARDLY READY | 10-1 | 12-1 | 64.6 | 1% | 4% | ▼-19% |
| 2 | PFIGURINE | 15-1 | 31-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | PFIGURINE | 15-1 | 31-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | PFIGURINE | 15-1 | 31-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | PFIGURINE | 15-1 | 31-1 | 68.6 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 1 | PHARDLY READY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 63.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-19% |
| 1 | PHARDLY READY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 63.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-19% |
| 1 | PHARDLY READY | 10-1 | 14-1 | 63.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-19% |
| 14 | EKEY ACTRESS | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 64.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-25% |
| 6 | PLAY ON PLAYER | 15-1 | 32-1 | 66.9 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | PLAY ON PLAYER | 15-1 | 31-1 | 66.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | PLAY ON PLAYER | 15-1 | 31-1 | 66.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | PLAY ON PLAYER | 15-1 | 31-1 | 66.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-12% |
| 5 | EPMODERN ESCAPE | 30-1 | 76-1 | 62.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | EPMODERN ESCAPE | 30-1 | 76-1 | 62.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | EPMODERN ESCAPE | 30-1 | 76-1 | 62.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | EPMODERN ESCAPE | 30-1 | 76-1 | 62.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 9 | SOCEAN RIPPLE | 20-1 | 45-1 | 59.5 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 9 | SOCEAN RIPPLE | 20-1 | 45-1 | 59.4 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 9 | SOCEAN RIPPLE | 20-1 | 45-1 | 59.4 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 9 | SOCEAN RIPPLE | 20-1 | 45-1 | 59.4 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | MOTHER LODE | 20-1 | 52-1 | 55.9 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | MOTHER LODE | 20-1 | 53-1 | 56.1 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | MOTHER LODE | 20-1 | 53-1 | 56.1 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | MOTHER LODE | 20-1 | 53-1 | 56.1 | 1% | 2% | ▼-10% |
| 16 | SARGENTINIDAD | 50-1 | 86-1 | 53.1 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 16 | SARGENTINIDAD | 50-1 | 86-1 | 53.1 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 16 | SARGENTINIDAD | 50-1 | 86-1 | 53.1 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
| 16 | SARGENTINIDAD | 50-1 | 86-1 | 53.1 | 0% | 1% | ·-4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.