John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 16

ARGENTINIDAD

M '21 · DEMARCHELIER × BELLE DE NUIT

Trainer: SEGLIN LUIS E · Jockey: MEZA JJ

Today's prediction

53.1

Speed fig

1.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.52
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.33
  • Starts Last 180d +0.21
  • Run Style S +0.20
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -15.08
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.89
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.36
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.16
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.02

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-05 TP 1m Dirt 2 2.8 64 71 5-7p2nd; rallied
2026-02-14 TP 1m Dirt 5 10.3 56 71 4p;3p-ins 2nd;moved up
2026-01-16 TP 1m Dirt 5 11.5 54 69 Saved ground;shift out
2025-12-27 TP 1.06m Dirt 6 8.8 64 74 2-4w;6p3/16;willingly
2025-12-04 TP 1m Dirt 8 16.0 53 71 Could not keep up
2025-11-04 IND 1m Turf 10 15.5 53 72 Saved ground
2025-10-16 IND 1.04m Dirt 4 7.5 63 66 Awk;inside;imprvd3path
2025-09-29 IND 1.06m Turf 7 14.8 57 66 Unrushed
2025-09-08 IND 1m Turf 5 2.5 64 66 Rail;rally3/16;yielded
2025-07-08 IND 1.06m Turf 8 10.8 59 72 Angld4p1/4;mild bid