Derby 2026
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PP 8

THEORETICAL

F '23 · NYQUIST × SHYSHEISNOT

Trainer: MOTT RILEY · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

76.5

Speed fig

28.1%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.10
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree +0.09
  • Class Par Trend +0.09
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.07
  • Prior Starts At Churchill +0.06

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.68
  • Max Speed Fig Career -1.03
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.85
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.47
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.30

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-29 TAM 1m Turf 5 8.0 76 74 Ins;swng 8w;imprv late
2025-11-29 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 8.5 76 81 3wd btw;gave way 4p2nd
2025-10-22 KEE 7f Dirt 5 11.0 65 86 Shy st;2-5p1/4;improvd
2025-09-25 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 7.8 73 82 Btw5/8;ins-2p;stayd on