John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 8

THEORETICAL

F '23 · NYQUIST × SHYSHEISNOT

Trainer: MOTT RILEY · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

75.9

Speed fig

9.7%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.56
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.37
  • Today Track Code +0.27
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.24
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.81
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.68
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.53
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.52
  • Today Post Position -0.37

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-29 TAM 1m Turf 5 8.0 76 74 Ins;swng 8w;imprv late
2025-11-29 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 8.5 76 81 3wd btw;gave way 4p2nd
2025-10-22 KEE 7f Dirt 5 11.0 65 86 Shy st;2-5p1/4;improvd
2025-09-25 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 7.8 73 82 Btw5/8;ins-2p;stayd on