John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 11

PLOT

F '22 · BLAME × SCAPE

Trainer: DRURY THOMAS JR · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

74.4

Speed fig

7.8%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +1.07
  • Today Track Code +0.41
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate +0.34
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.24
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.26
  • BRIS Prime Power -1.26
  • Today Field Size -0.63
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.57
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.41

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-02-12 TP 1.13m Dirt 4 15.3 71 80 Bmpd st;2w-ins;no thrt
2025-12-27 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 6.0 75 81 Bobbled/off slw;4p-ins
2025-09-04 KD 1.31m Turf 7 8.0 75 79 3p;ins uppr;lacked bid
2025-07-20 ELP 1m Dirt 3 11.3 74 80 Stumbled st;moved up
2025-06-18 CD 1.06m Turf 5 4.3 73 81 Tght btw st;2-3p;mvdup