John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 14

KEY ACTRESS

F '22 · MO TOWN × FIRST SCREENING

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: HERNANDEZ JUAN J

Today's prediction

64.9

Speed fig

3.7%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.65
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.27
  • Today Purse Log10 +0.24
  • Num Career Starts +0.20
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -9.23
  • Today Field Size -0.59
  • Today Track Code -0.55
  • Today Post Position -0.49
  • Distance Change From Last -0.46

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-12-10 TP 6f Dirt 10 15.8 47 79 Brk well;gave in;bled
2025-10-03 BAQ 1.06m Turf 9 5.0 78 75 Chased 2-3w; wknd late
2025-08-29 SAR 1.06m Turf 7 9.3 76 84 2path;headed3/16;tired
2025-07-03 SAR 1.06m Turf 2 1.5 73 82 2-3p trns;ask5/16;chsd
2025-06-05 SAR 1.06m Turf 3 4.0 80 82 Steady 6 1/2; kept on
2025-05-02 BAQ 1m Turf 4 3.3 84 74 In hand ins; wknd late