John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 15

WELLA

F '22 · CINCO CHARLIE × KIVA GIRL

Trainer: NAVARRETE ANNA · Jockey: LEON SONNY

Today's prediction

70.9

Speed fig

4.9%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.46
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.17
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.17
  • Class Par Trend +0.14
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -1.99
  • Distance Change From Last -0.90
  • Today Post Position -0.55
  • Today Field Size -0.54
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.43

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-27 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 4.5 72 82 4-5p;7-8p3/16;miss shw
2025-09-14 CD 6f Dirt 7 12.8 68 86 5-7p; no factor
2025-08-04 ELP 5.5f Turf 9 4.5 73 78 4p into lane;some gain