Sun, May 17
Race 3
Md 40000
Post: 1:43 · 4.5f · Dirt · $62K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersUnprojectable
6 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #8 JOE JOE DUDE (E, QSP 4)
6 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 8, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$17.30
mean $17.64
Expected ROI
-78.9%
net $-4.74
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 8, 7] — hits 7.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $17 (mean $18; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4, 8
B Contenders
7, 6, 1
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.3% | $13.74 | -83% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.7% | $13.74 | -73% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.8% | $14.26 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 17.5% | $17.30 | -67% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 21.1% | $27.48 | -57% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AISSACHAR | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1 | ·1.5-1 | 67.9 | 19% | 55% | ▼-45% |
| 8 | AEJOE JOE DUDE | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 70.5 | 19% | 54% | ▼-31% |
| 7 | BDUVAL | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | ·5.0-1 | 66.9 | 17% | 50% | ▲+7% |
| 6 | BCUBALIBRE | 4.5-1 | 5.8-1 | ·4.0-1 | 66.2 | 15% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 1 | BCAMPING SIETE | 20-1 | 29-1 | ·23-1 | 67.6 | 14% | 44% | ▲+33% |
| 3 | CTIZ GENERAL | 20-1 | 30-1 | ↓14-1 | 67.9 | 13% | 40% | ▲+23% |
| 9 | CROSS POWER | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↓13-1 | 50.1 | 3% | 12% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | SCRTRIM CASTLE | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCRHEART OF A HERO | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 17 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.