Sat, May 23
Race 3
Clm 50000
Post: 1:44 · 1m · Dirt · $86K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 MCSNIPER (EP, QSP 8)
- #3 G ROCKS (E, QSP 8)
- #6 BARTENDER (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 CALL ME PRECIOUS (E, QSP 6)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 4, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
9.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$19.39
mean $26.28
Expected ROI
-56.7%
net $-3.40
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 4, 2] — hits 9.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $19 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
4, 2, 5
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 9.5% | $16.16 | -69% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 12.1% | $16.16 | -67% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 17.8% | $16.16 | -54% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.7% | $14.58 | -79% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 31.9% | $23.42 | -48% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AECALL ME PRECIOUS | 1.0-1 | 1.0-1 | 78.9 | 24% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 4 | BPSPEED SKATER | 10-1 | 12-1 | 78.6 | 20% | 57% | ▲+34% |
| 2 | BEPMCSNIPER | 3.0-1 | 4.5-1 | 74.7 | 17% | 51% | ▼-12% |
| 5 | BPCOLD CASE | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 75.6 | 16% | 49% | ▲+20% |
| 6 | EPBARTENDER | 3.5-1 | 5.0-1 | 76.6 | 15% | 47% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | CEG ROCKS | 15-1 | 25-1 | 68.6 | 9% | 32% | ▲+16% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, May 23 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.