John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 1

THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS

G '21 · SKY MESA × SWEET STARLET

Trainer: JACOBSON DAVID · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

90.4

Speed fig

63.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.36
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.53
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.53
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.21
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.89

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.27
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.15
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.13
  • Distance Change From Last -0.10
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate -0.08

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-04 KEE 7f Dirt 2 0.8 98 96 Gain 4-5p;bid 1/8;duel
2026-03-01 OP 6f Dirt 6 8.5 84 Bmp stdy st; trail3-2p
2026-02-05 OP 1m Dirt 5 10.5 79 94 Broke back; trailed
2026-01-03 OP 6f Dirt 3 3.0 93 96 Off slw;5w;stride late
2025-12-19 OP 6f Dirt 2 3.5 87 94 Ins;angled6p upr;rally
2025-11-23 CD 1m Dirt 1 2.5 94 92 Gain 4p;took over 1/4
2025-11-01 CD 7.5f Dirt 3 1.0 94 96 2w btw;wait;6p1/4;late
2025-10-04 KEE 7f Dirt 2 2.5 99 96 Ins-2p;bid 3wbtw;outkk
2025-09-19 PID 6.5f Dirt 1 2.5 94 90 Trackd ins;angld;drvng
2025-08-29 CNL 5.5f Turf 3 2.0 83 86 2-3p;angled;clsd;got3d