Sun, May 31
Race 5
Alw 30000s
Post: 2:46 · 1m · Dirt · $62K purse · 5 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
5 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 YOU AIN'T POPPN (EP, QSP 8)
- #5 TRULY LEGIT (E, QSP 8)
- #1 BAYTOWN BRUISER (EP, QSP 8)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PADMIRAL HALL | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 81.7 | 27% | 74% | ▲+17% |
| 2 | EPYOU AIN'T POPPN | 6.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 81.9 | 23% | 68% | ▲+31% |
| 5 | ETRULY LEGIT | 4.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 76.8 | 19% | 60% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | EPBAYTOWN BRUISER | 1.8-1 | 2.0-1 | 78.2 | 19% | 60% | ▼-31% |
| 6 | PVERSED | 12-1 | 16-1 | 72.2 | 11% | 39% | ▲+19% |
| 4 | SCREPGUARDIAN | 2.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.