Fri, May 22
Race 8
OClm 100000n3x
Post: 4:22 · 6f · Dirt · $141K purse · 5 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
5 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 TOUGH CATCH (E, QSP 7)
- #3 FLOODLITES (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 HARRODSBURG (E, QSP 6)
- #2 VERIFIRE (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | EPFLOODLITES | 2.5-1 | 2.4-1 | 91.3 | 23% | 66% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | STHOUGHTTHATCOUNTS | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 90.4 | 21% | 63% | ▲+35% |
| 2 | EPVERIFIRE | 1.2-1 | 0.6-1 | 90.1 | 21% | 62% | ▼-38% |
| 4 | ETOUGH CATCH | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 89.4 | 20% | 60% | ▲+9% |
| 6 | EHARRODSBURG | 6.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 86.2 | 15% | 48% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | SCREPFURIO | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Fri, May 22 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.