Sun, May 31
Race 6
Md 12500
Post: 3:19 · 1m · Dirt · $35K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #10 TIMS (E, QSP 6)
- #12 CHASING GRAY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 CARSON (E, QSP 4)
- #9 VINO DOMINUS (E, QSP 4)
2 of 10 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 10, 11, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$86.20
mean $73.25
Expected ROI
-52.1%
net $-3.13
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 10, 11, 5] — hits 3.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $86 (mean $73; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
10, 11, 5
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.0% | $59.35 | -60% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 5.4% | $91.69 | -47% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.3% | $71.25 | -48% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.4% | $51.35 | -64% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 12.9% | $91.69 | -45% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AECARSON | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 72.4 | 21% | 55% | ·-2% |
| 10 | BETIMS | 6.0-1 | 6.5-1 | 67.9 | 15% | 44% | ▲+8% |
| 11 | BPWHATEVER | 5.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 65.9 | 12% | 36% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | BSPAIRED | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 66.1 | 12% | 36% | ▲+8% |
| 9 | EVINO DOMINUS | 4.5-1 | 5.2-1 | 67.4 | 11% | 35% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | CSPUNKIN BOY | 12-1 | 18-1 | 65.5 | 9% | 29% | ▲+9% |
| 12 | ECHASING GRAY | 10-1 | 13-1 | 57.6 | 6% | 19% | ·-4% |
| 6 | BIG NELSON | 20-1 | 42-1 | 59.6 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 8 | SPRING ST. DREAMER | 20-1 | 40-1 | 59.8 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 3 | PMOUNTAIN GRANDEUR | 10-1 | 13-1 | 48.6 | 3% | 10% | ▼-13% |
| 4 | SCRTLAHUICOLE | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCRTURN AND RUN | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.