John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 5

PAIRED

G '23 · CONNECT × TOO CHARMING

Trainer: JACOBSON DAVID · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

66.1

Speed fig

35.9%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.89
  • Today Track Code +0.35
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.16
  • Num Career Starts +0.16
  • Last Btn Lengths +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -7.94
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.12
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.96
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.89
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.65

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-15 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 0.5 68 79 2p;rallied;fended off
2026-04-30 CD 1m Dirt 4 8.8 62 79 Stp slw/brsh;3-2w;stay
2026-03-27 TP 1m Dirt 5 12.0 59 73 2p;brsh/adv btw 4p1/8
2026-03-13 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 8.5 62 74 Beat slow;ins;2-4p upr
2026-02-05 OP 6f Dirt 11 17.5 53 82 Trailed throughout
2025-12-12 OP 6f Dirt 7 10.0 57 77 Off slow; improved