John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 6

BIG NELSON

G '22 · LORD NELSON × SKINNER BOX

Trainer: KING BARRY L · Jockey: SHEEHY DANNY

Today's prediction

59.6

Speed fig

18.0%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.37
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.20
  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.17
  • Num Career Starts +0.16
  • Today Field Size +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -9.63
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.98
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.89
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.10
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.72

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-10 CD 7f Dirt 5 9.8 65 78 Bump st;6p1/4;moved up
2026-04-26 CD 6f Dirt 6 16.0 59 78 Lagged ins; moved up
2026-03-19 TP 6f Dirt 10 18.5 48 75 Brush start;3p;outrun
2026-03-11 TP 1m Dirt 5 10.3 63 75 3-4p;6p upr;improved
2026-01-07 TP 6f Dirt 8 11.5 64 78 3-4p; no factor btw
2025-11-13 CD 1.06m Dirt 9 47.0 32 84 Lag;show little;eased