John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 10

TIMS

G '23 · CLASSIC EMPIRE × BRIENZA

Trainer: SANTAMARIA CARLOS · Jockey: ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL

Today's prediction

67.9

Speed fig

44.4%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.30
  • Class Par Trend +0.20
  • Speed Fig Trend +0.15
  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.12
  • Num Career Starts +0.11

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.65
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.82
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.72
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.72
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.65

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-09 CD 6.5f Dirt 8 10.5 68 83 Stalked 3wd;faded btwn
2026-03-26 OP 1m Dirt 2 6.5 69 76 Ins;no match;dug place
2026-03-05 OP 6f Dirt 7 13.5 62 78 Off pace 3p; no factor
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 8 11.5 59 78 Bmp btwn st;2p;5p lane
2025-12-05 RP 6f Dirt 2 1.0 70 70 Vied 3w; out finished
2025-10-29 CD 7f Dirt 7 17.3 59 84 Bmpd/stdy btw early;4w
2025-10-15 KEE 6f Dirt 2 4.8 72 82 Trck 3-4w;5p1/4;ran on
2025-09-04 KD 1m Turf 9 23.0 49 76 Brk in;chase 2-3w;fade
2025-08-10 ELP 5.5f Turf 9 13.0 61 78 Bmp st;trck 3p;wkn btw