Sun, May 31
Race 7
Alw 141000C
Post: 3:51 · 5.5f · Turf · $141K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 SAPPHIRE BEACH (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 MONY MONY (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 BEACH HEIST (E, QSP 6)
- #2 OMAHA BAY (E, QSP 3)
- #4 SNAPPY COMEBACK (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 7, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$16.01
mean $26.77
Expected ROI
-78.6%
net $-4.72
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 7, 1, 5] — hits 4.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $16 (mean $27; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
7, 1, 5
C Value-edge longshots
4, 2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.1% | $13.82 | -88% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.9% | $30.36 | -70% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 8.6% | $30.36 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.2% | $16.61 | -76% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.0% | $29.32 | -69% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPSAPPHIRE BEACH | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 89.0 | 19% | 53% | ▼-20% |
| 7 | BEPMONY MONY | 4.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 85.6 | 16% | 47% | ·-4% |
| 1 | BEBEACH HEIST | 2.0-1 | 1.5-1 | 86.3 | 16% | 46% | ▼-39% |
| 5 | BPSNOW FACE PRINCESS | 12-1 | 10-1 | 85.1 | 14% | 42% | ▲+22% |
| 4 | CEPSNAPPY COMEBACK | 15-1 | 13-1 | 84.6 | 13% | 39% | ▲+23% |
| 8 | SSECRET HIDEAWAY | 8.0-1 | 6.5-1 | 83.8 | 13% | 39% | ▲+11% |
| 2 | CEOMAHA BAY | 12-1 | 13-1 | 82.0 | 11% | 34% | ▲+14% |
| 3 | SCRESHOULD'VE | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.