Sat, May 16
Race 6
OClm 100000b
Post: 8:30 · 1m · Turf · $141K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 PAYNT YA LATER (EP, QSP 8)
- #8 BOURBON MEMORY (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY (EP, QSP 7)
- #11 SHE'S ALL CHARM (P, QSP 7)
- #6 FOR LOVE AND HONOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 LONG AGO (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 5, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$186.02
mean $189.97
Expected ROI
-61.8%
net $-3.71
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 5, 4] — hits 1.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $186 (mean $190; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 5
B Contenders
4, 12, 2
C Value-edge longshots
11, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.1% | $95.02 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.2% | $199.67 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.2% | $114.93 | -72% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.4% | $133.66 | -74% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 4.2% | $171.75 | -63% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPSHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY | 5.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 89.0 | 12% | 35% | ▼-8% |
| 5 | AEPPAYNT YA LATER | 15-1 | 14-1 | 87.6 | 11% | 33% | ▲+17% |
| 4 | BPIN THE STARS | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 89.6 | 11% | 33% | ▼-18% |
| 12 | BPSMILING ELLIE | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 85.6 | 9% | 27% | ▼-9% |
| 2 | BSMIWA | 6.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 87.8 | 9% | 27% | ▼-9% |
| 6 | EPFOR LOVE AND HONOR | 4.5-1 | 6.2-1 | 85.4 | 9% | 27% | ▼-20% |
| 8 | EPBOURBON MEMORY | 12-1 | 12-1 | 83.9 | 8% | 23% | ·+4% |
| 7 | EPLONG AGO | 6.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 83.9 | 8% | 23% | ▼-13% |
| 3 | PSHOTGUN WEDDING | 15-1 | 22-1 | 84.6 | 7% | 22% | ▲+6% |
| 9 | CSSETTLING STORM | 20-1 | 31-1 | 82.9 | 7% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 11 | CPSHE'S ALL CHARM | 30-1 | 45-1 | 79.2 | 6% | 17% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | SLA MARINERA | 50-1 | 67-1 | 76.9 | 4% | 12% | ▲+7% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.