Sat, May 16
Race 5
Clm 30000b
Post: 7:57 · 6f · Dirt · $63K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 TIGER'S LEGACY (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 SHADOW COAST (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 COLONEL CALIENTE (E, QSP 4)
- #3 COOL COWBOY (E, QSP 3)
- #1 SLIDER (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 5, 6, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$26.32
mean $30.25
Expected ROI
-64.7%
net $-3.88
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 5, 6, 3] — hits 7.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $26 (mean $30; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4, 5
B Contenders
6, 3, 1
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 7.1% | $25.51 | -69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.1% | $31.21 | -57% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.8% | $26.15 | -66% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 19.3% | $37.85 | -45% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 23.1% | $35.24 | -56% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPSHADOW COAST | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 80.5 | 19% | 56% | ·+5% |
| 5 | AECOLONEL CALIENTE | 3.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 82.1 | 18% | 54% | ·-3% |
| 6 | BEPTIGER'S LEGACY | 2.0-1 | 2.0-1 | 82.8 | 17% | 52% | ▼-33% |
| 3 | BECOOL COWBOY | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 81.0 | 17% | 51% | ▼-12% |
| 1 | BESLIDER | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 79.0 | 15% | 47% | ▲+10% |
| 2 | CSLEAGUE OF LEGENDS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 77.2 | 13% | 41% | ▲+21% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.