John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 3

SHOTGUN WEDDING

F '22 · MENDELSSOHN × RELUCTANT BRIDE

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: TORRES JAIME A

Today's prediction

84.6

Speed fig

22.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.71
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.33
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.90
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.80
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.49

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.32
  • Starts Last 180d -0.26
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.24
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.19
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-22 KEE 6.5f Dirt 5 11.0 81 Trailed 2p; outrun
2025-11-08 WO 7f Dirt 5 2.5 93 93 Needed more last16th
2025-10-11 WO 1.06m Dirt 1 0.8 90 87 Spurted clr1/8;held on
2025-09-21 WO 1m Turf 2 0.5 87 87 2p;came4w;finish well
2025-09-07 WO 6.5f Dirt 1 0.5 88 88 Edged away last16th
2025-08-09 WO 6f Turf 2 0.5 86 84 Insd;5-6w & led 3/16
2025-07-05 WO 6.5f Turf 3 1.0 86 84 Late surge;not in time
2025-06-07 WO 6f Turf 3 6.3 82 84 Brsh gate st;late run
2025-05-17 WO 7f Dirt 4 0.5 84 86 Inside;headed;gamely
2025-04-26 WO 5.5f Dirt 3 2.8 84 88 Willingly on the rail