John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 12

SMILING ELLIE

M '21 · MIDSHIPMAN × EMERLAUDE

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: TORRES CRISTIAN A

Today's prediction

85.6

Speed fig

27.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.68
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.70
  • Last Speed Fig +0.67
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.65
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.64

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.42
  • Today Post Position -0.41
  • Class Par Trend -0.25
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.17
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-15 KEE 1.06m Turf 2 1.3 89 2wbtw;splt 4p;bid;outk
2026-02-25 TAM 1.06m Turf 2 1.3 83 80 2-3p;late gn;caught
2025-10-16 KEE 1.06m Turf 6 2.5 79 2p;gain 5p1/4;bid;yld
2025-08-28 KD 6.5f Turf 7 7.8 76 Btwn;riddn 5/16;faded
2025-08-02 CNL 1.06m Turf 1 1.0 87 87 Ins;bid4w;clear;held
2025-06-14 GP 1m Turf 1 0.3 75 84 Angld 6w;full of run
2025-04-19 GP 1m Turf 2 1.3 86 83 2p;bid1/4;trffc;lt gn
2025-03-14 GP 1.06m Turf 1 2.3 83 79 Prsd pc;svgnd;drew off
2025-02-12 GP 1m Turf 2 0.1 87 79 Ins; 5wd 3/16; closed
2025-01-18 GP 1.04m Dirt 8 7.0 73 80 Ins;cue5/16;gaveway1/8