Sat, May 16
Race 7
Md 50000
Post: 9:05 · 1.06m · Dirt · $67K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersUnprojectable
4 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
4 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 6, 7, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$26.10
mean $31.43
Expected ROI
-68.2%
net $-4.09
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 6, 7, 1] — hits 6.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $26 (mean $31; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3, 6
B Contenders
7, 1, 2
C Value-edge longshots
4, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.5% | $26.04 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.5% | $34.93 | -56% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 16.0% | $34.93 | -44% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.0% | $20.39 | -78% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 22.2% | $20.70 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APPELICAN BAY | 4.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 77.4 | 20% | 55% | ·+4% |
| 6 | ASSARTORIAL | 1.6-1 | 1.9-1 | 76.8 | 18% | 52% | ▼-46% |
| 7 | BPCHAMPAGNE LIBERAL | 4.5-1 | 5.1-1 | 74.3 | 16% | 47% | ·+1% |
| 1 | BPAUL'S RECOVERY | 3.0-1 | 3.8-1 | 73.7 | 15% | 45% | ▼-19% |
| 2 | BKING LEE | 10-1 | 9.7-1 | 74.7 | 14% | 43% | ▲+20% |
| 4 | CUR BENJA | 20-1 | 36-1 | 71.8 | 10% | 31% | ▲+19% |
| 5 | CPRINCE J J | 15-1 | 20-1 | 65.3 | 8% | 25% | ▲+9% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.