John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 10

LA MARINERA

F '22 · INSTILLED REGARD × CURLIN SUPREME

Trainer: FERNANDEZ KELLY A · Jockey: CRISPIN ALEXANDER

Today's prediction

76.9

Speed fig

12.0%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.84
  • Today Track Code +0.32
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.30
  • Class Par Trend +0.27
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.81
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.41
  • Today Post Position -0.41
  • Last Finish Pos -0.37
  • Last Speed Fig -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-15 KEE 1.06m Turf 11 19.5 67 Beat slow st;3p;outrun
2026-03-14 TP 1m Dirt 1 2.0 81 88 6-7p3/16;rally;left ld
2026-02-06 TP 6f Dirt 1 0.3 82 79 2wbtw;6wbtw upr;rally
2026-01-03 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 5.0 82 88 3-4p;7p upr;willingly
2025-11-30 MNR 1m Dirt 3 3.8 67 74 Bid willingly lane
2025-11-13 CD 1m Dirt 5 12.0 74 82 3p;5p upr;no menace
2025-10-28 IND 6f Dirt 4 10.8 70 86 6p1/4;improved late
2025-10-06 IND 6f Dirt 4 6.0 71 86 Rallied1/4;no late bid
2025-09-15 IND 6f Dirt 3 1.5 80 86 4p;rally5p1/8
2025-07-04 BTP 6f Dirt 4 6.5 69 80 Rail; needed more