Sun, May 10
Race 6
Md 12500
Post: 3:19 · 7f · Dirt · $35K purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 RICHEZTOO (E, QSP 8)
- #12 MALEVAJE (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 CIRCLE THE STORM (E, QSP 0)
4 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 10, 11
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$60.32
mean $63.47
Expected ROI
-53.7%
net $-3.22
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 10, 11] — hits 4.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $60 (mean $63; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 10
B Contenders
11, 1, 4
C Value-edge longshots
8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.9% | $49.73 | -65% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.4% | $48.08 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.0% | $46.84 | -65% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 10.5% | $60.32 | -59% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 11.2% | $80.21 | -54% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AERICHEZTOO | 5.0-1 | 4.7-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 69.4 | 19% | 51% | ▼-34% |
| 10 | APNEXT TIME | 3.0-1 | 3.0-1 | ·3.0-1 | 69.7 | 17% | 49% | ▼-15% |
| 11 | BPOWER AURA | 8.0-1 | 7.6-1 | ·9.0-1 | 63.8 | 13% | 39% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | BCARSON | 10-1 | 13-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 66.6 | 11% | 34% | ·-2% |
| 4 | BSCAUSE IMA BOSS | 15-1 | 22-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 64.4 | 11% | 33% | ·+1% |
| 8 | CKISSES FROM BRAZIL | 30-1 | 43-1 | ↓13-1 | 67.3 | 10% | 32% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | ECIRCLE THE STORM | 15-1 | 20-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 63.2 | 9% | 29% | ▼-8% |
| 12 | EPMALEVAJE | 50-1 | 67-1 | ↓17-1 | 55.3 | 5% | 18% | ·+4% |
| 3 | BIG NELSON | 20-1 | 52-1 | ↓14-1 | 54.4 | 4% | 15% | ·-2% |
| 6 | SCRCARCAR EXPRESS | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCREBARSTOOL | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRESTART OUT | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.