Sun, May 10
Race 7
Md 100000
Post: 3:51 · 7f · Dirt · $72K purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersSpeed duel
6 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #5 DISCOTHEQUE (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 ROCK MUSIC (E, QSP 4)
- #7 AUTHENTIC PATRIOT (E, QSP 3)
- #3 BUNTUS FOCLORA (EP, QSP 2)
- #9 SOHO JIMMY (E, QSP 2)
- #11 TORRE EIFFEL (E, QSP 1)
4 of 10 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 7, 1, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$25.54
mean $41.27
Expected ROI
-73.5%
net $-4.41
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [7, 1, 5, 2] — hits 3.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $26 (mean $41; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7, 1
B Contenders
5, 2, 6
C Value-edge longshots
11, 10
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.9% | $25.54 | -80% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.5% | $25.54 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.6% | $25.54 | -73% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $30.00 | 10.5% | $72.36 | -43% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 9.6% | $25.54 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AEAUTHENTIC PATRIOT | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1 | ↑1.6-1 | 84.3 | 19% | 52% | ▼-46% |
| 1 | AEROCK MUSIC | 4.0-1 | 3.0-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 80.5 | 18% | 51% | ▼-41% |
| 5 | BEPDISCOTHEQUE | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 77.9 | 13% | 38% | ▲+10% |
| 2 | BBARRACKS | 15-1 | 14-1 | ↑21-1 | 72.8 | 10% | 32% | ▲+20% |
| 6 | BACCORD | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↑25-1 | 74.4 | 9% | 29% | ▲+19% |
| 3 | EPBUNTUS FOCLORA | 8.0-1 | 6.9-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 75.0 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 4 | PELICAN HILL | 10-1 | 9.5-1 | ·9.0-1 | 69.9 | 7% | 23% | ·-3% |
| 11 | CETORRE EIFFEL | 20-1 | 30-1 | ↑32-1 | 73.3 | 6% | 21% | ▲+13% |
| 10 | CSTORMIEST | 30-1 | 74-1 | ↑61-1 | 66.9 | 4% | 14% | ▲+10% |
| 9 | ESOHO JIMMY | 30-1 | 66-1 | ↑42-1 | 62.0 | 4% | 12% | ▲+6% |
| 8 | SCRPBLESSED WARRIOR | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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