John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 3

CARCAR EXPRESS

G '22 · CARACARO × FOXBEAU

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: CURTIS BEN

Today's prediction

68.2

Speed fig

68.5%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.60
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.30
  • Today Purse Log10 +0.22
  • Today Field Size +0.21
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.39
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.65
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.56
  • Distance Change From Last -1.15
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.96

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-30 CD 6f Dirt 10 16.3 65 86 Stalked 3p; faded
2024-10-17 KEE 7f Dirt 11 25.5 47 89 Headed 3/8; wknd 5/16
2024-09-12 CD 6f Dirt 11 21.3 53 85 Leand in/bobbled st;3p