John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 10

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C '23 · NOT THIS TIME × RUNNING CREEK

Trainer: JACOBSON DAVID · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

69.7

Speed fig

49.1%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.54
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.43
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.43
  • Distance Change From Last +0.15
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.48
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.18
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.67
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.53
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.38

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-11 KEE 7f Dirt 8 9.3 58 84 2p;chsd 2-3p btw;tired
2026-02-05 FG 1.06m Turf 7 8.5 65 84 Stalked; no response
2026-01-08 FG 1.06m Turf 4 9.5 76 83 Inwrd; rated; no bid