Sun, May 10
Race 5
Clm 50000
Post: 2:46 · 1.13m · Turf · $86K purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 CURAHEE (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 TAUNTING (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 SUGOI (E, QSP 4)
- #2 THE MINKSTER (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 3, 10, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$82.07
mean $100.39
Expected ROI
-72.2%
net $-4.33
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 3, 10, 8] — hits 1.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $82 (mean $100; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 3
B Contenders
10, 8, 9
C Value-edge longshots
5, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.8% | $82.07 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.3% | $82.07 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.0% | $73.57 | -77% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.7% | $85.83 | -73% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 5.9% | $90.30 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASWRITE OFF JERRY | 4.0-1 | 3.3-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 86.4 | 14% | 39% | ▼-33% |
| 3 | ASOFFLEE NAUGHTY | 6.0-1 | 5.3-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 87.1 | 14% | 39% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | BPFACTOR ANALYSIS | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ↑10-1 | 84.7 | 11% | 32% | ▲+9% |
| 8 | BESUGOI | 10-1 | 10-1 | ·11-1 | 84.7 | 9% | 29% | ▲+7% |
| 9 | BPARMY OFFICER | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 83.3 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | CEPCURAHEE | 5.0-1 | 6.2-1 | ↑13-1 | 81.0 | 9% | 28% | ▲+9% |
| 11 | SWAR OFFICER | 12-1 | 13-1 | ·10-1 | 82.7 | 9% | 27% | ·+4% |
| 4 | SRISK MANAGER | 15-1 | 17-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 83.5 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 5 | CSPROTONIC POWER | 30-1 | 44-1 | ↓17-1 | 81.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+10% |
| 2 | EPTHE MINKSTER | 30-1 | 45-1 | ·23-1 | 73.5 | 4% | 13% | ·+2% |
| 7 | EPTAUNTING | 20-1 | 34-1 | ·21-1 | 73.3 | 4% | 13% | ·+1% |
| 12 | SCRPTAPIT SHOES | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.