Sat, May 2
Race 3
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 12:05 · 1m · Dirt · $134K purse · 14 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 14 of 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 JOHN HANCOCK (E, QSP 8)
- #12 PRAETOR (E, QSP 8)
- #9 KEEWAYDIN (E, QSP 8)
- #10 VIBE (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 VAMOS CARLITOS (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 COMPORT (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 SPECIAL CALIBER (EP, QSP 5)
- #11 ALEMAN (EP, QSP 5)
- #1 ARRO SMASH (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 12, 6, 14
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$42.10
mean $91.98
Expected ROI
-83.5%
net $-5.01
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 12, 6, 14] — hits 1.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $42 (mean $92; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 12
B Contenders
6, 14, 4
C Value-edge longshots
13, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.3% | $40.68 | -91% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.9% | $117.52 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.2% | $42.10 | -83% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.9% | $136.83 | -78% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 3.9% | $117.52 | -80% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AEJOHN HANCOCK | 6.0-1 | 4.5-1 | ↓3.5-1 | 90.2 | 12% | 34% | ▼-23% |
| 12 | AEPRAETOR | 3.0-1 | 2.2-1 | ·3.5-1 | 90.3 | 12% | 34% | ▼-23% |
| 6 | BPWHO DEY | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 89.7 | 10% | 31% | ▼-33% |
| 14 | BPBULLARD | 12-1 | 9.0-1 | ↑21-1 | 88.2 | 8% | 25% | ▲+13% |
| 4 | BEPCOMPORT | 15-1 | 14-1 | ·12-1 | 86.1 | 8% | 24% | ·+4% |
| 8 | PRACING DRIVER | 20-1 | 24-1 | ↓12-1 | 87.8 | 8% | 23% | ·+3% |
| 9 | EKEEWAYDIN | 8.0-1 | 7.2-1 | ↑20-1 | 85.2 | 7% | 22% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | EPVIBE | 6.0-1 | 5.2-1 | ·6.0-1 | 83.4 | 7% | 21% | ▼-15% |
| 1 | CEPARRO SMASH | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↑40-1 | 84.6 | 6% | 19% | ▲+13% |
| 13 | CPATTACHE | 20-1 | 30-1 | ↑48-1 | 83.7 | 6% | 18% | ▲+13% |
| 2 | EPVAMOS CARLITOS | 15-1 | 17-1 | ·17-1 | 80.0 | 5% | 17% | ·+2% |
| 3 | EPSPECIAL CALIBER | 30-1 | 52-1 | ·26-1 | 79.8 | 4% | 13% | ·+4% |
| 7 | SMITOCHONDRIA | 30-1 | 39-1 | ·34-1 | 76.3 | 3% | 10% | ·+3% |
| 11 | EPALEMAN | 30-1 | 58-1 | ↑62-1 | 75.2 | 3% | 9% | ▲+5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.