Sat, May 2
Race 2
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 11:32 · 1.06m · Dirt · $127K purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #9 OUR MONEYMAN (P, QSP 7)
- #11 LINCOLN'S LAW (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 SEAL BAY (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 MAKE MY DAY (E, QSP 4)
- #1 OUT OF THE WOODS (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 8, 6, 11
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$66.88
mean $65.29
Expected ROI
-84.7%
net $-5.08
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [8, 6, 11] — hits 1.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $67 (mean $65; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 6
B Contenders
11, 4, 9
C Value-edge longshots
12, 2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.4% | $28.37 | -92% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.7% | $31.72 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.7% | $28.37 | -92% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.2% | $31.72 | -90% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 5.0% | $40.87 | -88% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | APTAPTASTIC | 3.0-1 | 2.3-1 | ↓1.0-1 | 88.9 | 13% | 38% | ▼-62% |
| 6 | AEMAKE MY DAY | 8.0-1 | 5.6-1 | ·7.0-1 | 87.3 | 12% | 34% | ·+2% |
| 11 | BEPLINCOLN'S LAW | 10-1 | 8.2-1 | ·8.0-1 | 86.8 | 11% | 32% | ·+3% |
| 4 | BPMEMORY | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | ·4.5-1 | 85.9 | 10% | 29% | ▼-17% |
| 9 | BPOUR MONEYMAN | 6.0-1 | 5.8-1 | ·7.0-1 | 85.4 | 10% | 29% | ·-3% |
| 2 | CSSOVEREIGN LAW | 8.0-1 | 6.1-1 | ↑20-1 | 83.2 | 9% | 28% | ▲+15% |
| 1 | EOUT OF THE WOODS | 6.0-1 | 8.0-1 | ↑12-1 | 85.8 | 8% | 25% | ▲+6% |
| 7 | SVERY CONNECTED | 12-1 | 13-1 | ↑22-1 | 83.5 | 8% | 24% | ▲+13% |
| 12 | CSSPIRIT OF ROYAL | 30-1 | 33-1 | ↑53-1 | 84.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+19% |
| 3 | SSTEEL | 20-1 | 25-1 | ↑26-1 | 84.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+14% |
| 5 | EPSEAL BAY | 30-1 | 49-1 | ↑70-1 | 75.3 | 4% | 13% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | SCREPJ J GREY | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.