John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

ARRO SMASH

G '20 · ARROGATE × HENNESEY SMASH

Trainer: BAUER PHILIP A · Jockey: CORRALES GERARDO

Today's prediction

84.6

Speed fig

18.8%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.95
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.80
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.54
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.95
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.69

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.13
  • Days Since Last Race -0.55
  • Num Career Starts -0.41
  • Starts Last 180d -0.37
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-11-30 CD 7f Dirt 4 3.0 87 2p;7p upr;moved up
2025-05-22 CD 1m Dirt 4 2.5 91 95 Ins;2w1/4;moved up
2025-05-01 CD 6f Dirt 4 6.8 93 100 Ins;4p upper;mildly
2025-02-13 FG 6f Dirt 2 2.5 97 97 Ins-2p;4wd upr;rallied
2025-01-17 OP 1m Dirt 5 5.0 84 97 Duel;tiring;altered1/8
2024-12-20 TP 6f Dirt 10 13.0 73 91 Saved grnd no avail
2024-11-09 CD 7f Dirt 7 4.5 90 100 5p;chased 6pupr;no bid
2024-09-12 CD 7.5f Dirt 8 8.0 82 100 Bmpd btw;vie 3-2w;wknd
2024-08-24 SAR 1m Dirt 1 1.3 95 96 Bmp brk;2p;3p;respond
2024-07-20 SAR 7f Dirt 8 22.8 64 99 Hit gate; bump betw st