John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 4

VAMOS CARLITOS

G '22 · CATHOLIC BOY × GABEIRA

Trainer: FOLEY GREG · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

85.3

Speed fig

35.1%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.98
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.36
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.64
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.61
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.59

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.16
  • Today Field Size -0.12
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean -0.10
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.10
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.09

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-02 CD 1m Dirt 5 7.0 87 92 Steadied hard 7/16
2026-03-19 FG 1.06m Dirt 1 1.0 93 91 Chsd2p; press str; up
2026-02-19 FG 1.06m Dirt 3 11.0 83 90 Rated inside;weakened
2026-01-29 FG 5.5f Turf 5 5.5 78 86 Trail; imprvd outs
2025-06-21 CD 1.06m Dirt 7 13.5 73 90 3p1st;4p upr;thru 1/2
2025-05-03 CD 1.06m Dirt 9 16.5 85 91 Through after a half
2025-02-15 FG 1.13m Dirt 9 19.8 83 98 2-4p;9p upr;no factor
2025-01-20 FG 1.06m Dirt 2 0.8 81 90 Ins;held up;5p upr;bid
2024-11-22 CD 1m Dirt 1 0.8 78 80 Bid 2w-3pbtw;duel;edge
2024-11-08 CD 1.06m Turf 11 14.5 67 3p; never involved
2024-09-23 IND 1.04m Dirt 1 2.8 65 71 Bid3p1/2;rally;duel