Thu, Apr 30
Race 5
Md 12500
Post: 2:52 · 1m · Dirt · $35K purse · 52 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
52 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #3 JINXZI (E, QSP 7)
- #3 JINXZI (E, QSP 7)
- #3 JINXZI (E, QSP 7)
- #3 JINXZI (E, QSP 7)
- #1 CHASING GRAY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 CHASING GRAY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 CHASING GRAY (E, QSP 6)
- #1 CHASING GRAY (E, QSP 6)
20 of 52 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [8] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 8
B Contenders
8, 8, 3
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | BPANDO | 10-1 | 12-1 | 69.6 | 4% | 12% | ▼-11% |
| 8 | BPANDO | 10-1 | 12-1 | 69.6 | 4% | 12% | ▼-11% |
| 8 | BPANDO | 10-1 | 12-1 | 69.6 | 4% | 12% | ▼-11% |
| 8 | BPANDO | 10-1 | 13-1 | 69.3 | 4% | 12% | ▼-12% |
| 3 | BEJINXZI | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 69.5 | 4% | 12% | ▼-25% |
| 3 | BEJINXZI | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 69.5 | 4% | 12% | ▼-25% |
| 3 | BEJINXZI | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 69.5 | 4% | 12% | ▼-25% |
| 12 | STREGETOUR | 6.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 67.4 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 12 | STREGETOUR | 6.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 67.4 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 12 | STREGETOUR | 6.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 67.4 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 12 | STREGETOUR | 6.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 67.4 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 3 | BEJINXZI | 6.0-1 | 9.2-1 | 68.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-27% |
| 6 | SBIG ROG | 6.0-1 | 11-1 | 66.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 6 | SBIG ROG | 6.0-1 | 11-1 | 66.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-31% |
| 6 | SBIG ROG | 6.0-1 | 11-1 | 66.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-31% |
| 6 | SBIG ROG | 6.0-1 | 11-1 | 66.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-31% |
| 10 | SPRING ST. DREAMER | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 62.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | SPRING ST. DREAMER | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 62.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | SPRING ST. DREAMER | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 62.4 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 10 | SPRING ST. DREAMER | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 62.3 | 2% | 6% | ▼-23% |
| 4 | SCLIFFS OF DOVER | 4.5-1 | 7.5-1 | 65.0 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 4 | SCLIFFS OF DOVER | 4.5-1 | 7.5-1 | 65.0 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 4 | SCLIFFS OF DOVER | 4.5-1 | 7.5-1 | 65.0 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 4 | SCLIFFS OF DOVER | 4.5-1 | 7.5-1 | 65.0 | 2% | 5% | ▼-41% |
| 7 | KICK IT IN | 12-1 | 23-1 | 64.1 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 7 | KICK IT IN | 12-1 | 23-1 | 64.1 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 7 | KICK IT IN | 12-1 | 23-1 | 64.1 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 7 | KICK IT IN | 12-1 | 23-1 | 64.1 | 2% | 5% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | PAIRED | 20-1 | 41-1 | 60.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | PAIRED | 20-1 | 41-1 | 60.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | PAIRED | 20-1 | 41-1 | 60.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | PAIRED | 20-1 | 41-1 | 60.4 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 11 | THE REINBOW FACTOR | 20-1 | 44-1 | 62.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 11 | THE REINBOW FACTOR | 20-1 | 44-1 | 62.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 11 | THE REINBOW FACTOR | 20-1 | 44-1 | 62.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 11 | THE REINBOW FACTOR | 20-1 | 44-1 | 62.6 | 2% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 2 | SOLD TRACE | 15-1 | 35-1 | 58.2 | 2% | 5% | ▼-11% |
| 2 | SOLD TRACE | 15-1 | 37-1 | 57.5 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | SOLD TRACE | 15-1 | 37-1 | 57.5 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 2 | SOLD TRACE | 15-1 | 37-1 | 57.5 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 9 | PCHIQUITA'S WAY | 30-1 | 54-1 | 55.1 | 1% | 3% | ·-5% |
| 9 | PCHIQUITA'S WAY | 30-1 | 54-1 | 55.1 | 1% | 3% | ·-5% |
| 9 | PCHIQUITA'S WAY | 30-1 | 54-1 | 55.1 | 1% | 3% | ·-5% |
| 9 | PCHIQUITA'S WAY | 30-1 | 54-1 | 55.1 | 1% | 3% | ·-5% |
| 1 | ECHASING GRAY | 4.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 54.8 | 1% | 3% | ▼-48% |
| 1 | ECHASING GRAY | 4.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 54.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-48% |
| 1 | ECHASING GRAY | 4.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 54.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-48% |
| 1 | ECHASING GRAY | 4.0-1 | 7.7-1 | 54.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-48% |
| 13 | SILVER DIME | 10-1 | 21-1 | 45.3 | 0% | 1% | ▼-22% |
| 13 | SILVER DIME | 10-1 | 21-1 | 45.3 | 0% | 1% | ▼-22% |
| 13 | SILVER DIME | 10-1 | 21-1 | 45.3 | 0% | 1% | ▼-22% |
| 13 | SILVER DIME | 10-1 | 21-1 | 45.2 | 0% | 1% | ▼-22% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.