John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 9

CHIQUITA'S WAY

F '23 · CROSS TRAFFIC × CARRIE

Trainer: CAMBRAY ANDRES · Jockey: PENA PEDRO

Today's prediction

55.1

Speed fig

3.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.15
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.14
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree +0.11
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.09
  • Weight Change From Last +0.08

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -10.28
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.82
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.72
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.58
  • Distance Change From Last -1.20

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-26 TP 5f Dirt 2 7.3 60 70 Traffic 3/16;split 3w
2026-03-13 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 5.5 62 70 2p;btw;imprv 3/16;chsd
2026-02-26 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 8.8 61 72 Prmpt 2w;faded;left ld
2026-02-11 TP 6f Dirt 4 5.0 63 72 Ins;2-3p3/16;left lead
2026-01-03 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 3.5 63 69 5p; stayed on
2025-12-12 TP 1.06m Dirt 10 10.8 57 70 Tracked 3wd 3/4s empty
2025-11-02 CD 5.5f Dirt 5 6.8 62 76 3p;5-6p1/4;left lead
2025-10-15 KEE 6f Dirt 10 17.3 52 82 3w;6p1/4;no factor
2025-09-08 IND 4.5f Dirt 6 16.0 30 65 Bmpd st;saved ground
2025-08-23 ELP 5.5f Turf 10 9.5 50 76 Chased 4-5p; wknd