Fri, May 29
Race 5
Md 30000
Post: 2:45 · 7f · Dirt · $57K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #11 MANDY'S MAN CAN (E, QSP 5)
- #10 ROYAL SAPPHIRE (E, QSP 4)
- #7 HELLACIOUS (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 TORRE EIFFEL (E, QSP 1)
- #6 ROKTAR (E, QSP 1)
4 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 11, 1, 10, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$97.43
mean $117.44
Expected ROI
-76.2%
net $-4.57
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [11, 1, 10, 5] — hits 1.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $97 (mean $117; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11, 1
B Contenders
10, 5, 12
C Value-edge longshots
8, 2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.3% | $85.72 | -80% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.5% | $95.93 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.3% | $63.47 | -87% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.6% | $63.47 | -81% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 4.9% | $101.15 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AEMANDY'S MAN CAN | 5.0-1 | 4.4-1 | 72.6 | 12% | 36% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | ASACE JACK DEUCE | 3.0-1 | 3.2-1 | 73.6 | 12% | 35% | ▼-28% |
| 10 | BEROYAL SAPPHIRE | 6.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 71.7 | 11% | 32% | ·-5% |
| 5 | BETORRE EIFFEL | 6.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 74.8 | 10% | 29% | ▼-7% |
| 12 | BWINGFOOT | 3.5-1 | 2.1-1 | 65.4 | 9% | 28% | ▼-29% |
| 8 | CNYTTIME STORY | 20-1 | 32-1 | 70.6 | 9% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 7 | EPHELLACIOUS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 70.4 | 8% | 25% | ▲+6% |
| 4 | PMAJOR MACK | 15-1 | 23-1 | 65.8 | 7% | 21% | ·+5% |
| 9 | DARK RYE | 20-1 | 35-1 | 65.5 | 6% | 19% | ▲+7% |
| 2 | CPOWER AURA | 30-1 | 54-1 | 65.9 | 6% | 18% | ▲+10% |
| 3 | PACTIVITY | 30-1 | 44-1 | 64.2 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 6 | EROKTAR | 15-1 | 31-1 | 62.5 | 5% | 16% | ·-0% |
| 13 | SCRJEM'S HERSHEY KISS | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.